Predictive policing is one of these strategies, which within West Midlands Police, and as national lead for data analytics, I have worked hard to counter risks associated with it. Registered in England & Wales No. Elsevier is the main contributor with the three individual book chapters regarding predictive policing. On the basis of these different but complimentary notions about predictive policing in the literature, we developed the following definition: Predictive policing is the collection and analysis of data about previous crimes for identification and statistical prediction of individuals or geospatial areas with an increased probability of criminal activity to help developing policing intervention and prevention strategies and tactics. The strength of this method lies in the transparent choices regarding the selection of publications and their analysis. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) is a rigorous method for conducting systematic literature reviews (Liberati et al., 2009). Predictive policing does not replace conventional policing methods (e.g. of Public Policy from the Hertie School of Governance and a B.A. Brannon (2017) compared two data-driven projects – one of which concerned with predictive policing – and came to a remarkable conclusion. Katrina holds an M.A. Mohler et al. This approach means that police departments analyze statistical historic data to predict in what geographic areas there is an increased chance of criminal activity. Google Scholar offered 2400 and we evaluated the first 32 pages to check for high-quality books and (edited) book chapters that cover predictive policing. They argued that good crime analysts have been practicing predictive policing for more than 40 years. tacit knowledge of police officers), the models will be outdated and present a skewed image of reality (Perry, 2013). “It … The mixed findings can be attributed to the type of evaluation, to the type of predictive policing or to the type of method that was used for predictive policing. “Predictive policing is another extremely popular technology when you have limited resources,” said Jim Bueermann, president of the Police Foundation. When such assumptions are inaccurate or untested they can lead to mistrust, the development of perceptions of unfairness, and ultimately the undermining of legitimacy. They assessed the Domain Awareness system, which is a network of sensors, databases, devices, software and infrastructure that delivers tailored information and analytics to mobile devices and precinct desktops (Levine et al., 2017, p. 71). As a consequence of the lack of transparency, use of a model of predictive policing for profiling may result in stigmatizing individuals and groups and thus forms of discrimination based on algorithms. gang shootings). Methods for predicting offenders:These approaches identify individuals at risk of offending in the future. Table 1 presents an overview of the publications that we included in the review. Many of the articles indicate that predictive policing entails the application of quantitative techniques to forecast where criminal activities might occur in the (near) future (Camacho-Collados & Liberatore, 2015). Dr. André Hahn, Member of the Bundestag, is the Deputy Chairman of the Left Party parliamentary group and a member of the German Parliamentary Oversight Panel (PKGr). POLICING PREDICTIVE POLICING. Possible explanations for these no-results are the (1) statistical power which was too limited (because few districts were incorporated in the experiment), (2) the police departments did not implement the strategies from PILOT rightly, (3) or the possibility that the programme was inadequate. Niovi Vavoula is Lecturer in Migration and Security at Queen Mary University of London, from where she holds an LLM in European Law and a Ph.D. that examined the privacy concerns stemming from the establishment and operation of EU-wide information systems for third-country nationals. We would be negligent if we disregarded this data. There are many prospects described of predictive models, as it aims to reduce crime through more efficient and effective policing strategies. Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. Predictive policing is used to detect the probability of crime in any area thus helping police to protect the crime before it happens. “The power of the police to fulfil their functions and duties is dependent on public approval of their existence, actions and behaviour, and on their ability to secure and maintain public respect”. Critics of these systems and trials have suggested that the data used is drawn from those areas within our communities that are already ‘over-policed’ and disproportionately populated by black and minority ethnic groups; thus the interventions delivered by police — as a result of decisions made by algorithms — disproportionately affect people within those communities, which clearly isn’t fair. They tested whether an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model (ETAS) that calculates the risk of criminal behavior in long-term hotspots and short-term near-repeat risks (Mohler et al., 2015). Brannon (2017) concludes that the application of predictive policing in a geographical area in the city also impacts this space and its inhabitants: when one area is monitoring criminal activity while the other area is flourishing as capital investments are encouraged, this leads to spatial inequality across racial and social classes (Brannon, 2017). Whereas several studies show a positive significant effect for geospatial predictions, other studies have no significant results. The articles are published from 2010 onward, with the most recent published in 2017. We found that still only a limited number of studies in our corpus focused on the effectiveness of predictive policing methods in practice, but some recent studies tested whether the application of predictive policing techniques results in improvements of crime reduction. Since 2008 he is Professor for Public Law and European Law at the University of Applied Sciences for Police and Public Administration in North Rhine-Westphalia (HSPV NRW). This could lead to an accountability gap in which police officers are unable to understand the models and therefore cannot deduce biases in the models. Obtained Abitur in 1993; completed compulsory basic military service in the German-French brigade from 1993 to 1994; studied law at the University of Freiburg from 1994 to 1999; passed second state examination in law in 2001. Camacho-Collados and Liberatore (2015) have developed in collaboration with the Spanish National Police Corps a Decision Support System (DSS) to efficiently distribute police officers in a geographic area. We conclude that the current thrust of predictive policing initiatives is based on convincing arguments and anecdotal evidence rather than on systematic empirical research. Some of these data might be too personal, or their handlers might lack the capabilities and professionalism to keep th… As Detective Chief Superintendent and Head of Professional Standards, I hope I can influence others to follow in this same vein. To evaluate the claimed drawbacks of lack of transparency or accountability, it should be studied how predictive models are used in practice. Williams, Burnap, and Sloan (2016) draw similar conclusions in respect to social media and criminal activity, as they find an association “between aggregated open-source communications data and aggregated police recorded crime data in London” (p. 337). The fact that the practice depends on the collection and processing of data has raised concerns over privacy rights. The article discusses the risks of marginalising and disadvantaging those from black and minority ethnic communities. Predictive policing programs are being rolled out and lauded all over the country — in South Jersey, Albuquerque, Berkeley, and Manchester, New Hampshire, to name a few. Thus, they conclude, predictive algorithms such as the ETAS algorithm can indeed help to reduce crime (Mohler et al., 2015). By closing this message, you are consenting to our use of cookies. Previously, Katrina worked as a Programme Officer at the NGO Democracy Reporting International on a range of Good Governance topics, as well as for the GIZ’s Decentralisation programme in Rwanda. As a young community beat officer I used to turn up for a shift and flick through, or analyse, the crime reports, offending behaviours and intelligence records received since my last shift and cross reference these with my areas of responsibility, the timing of my shift, and add in a bit of professional judgement. The main findings of this study are that the configuration of police patrols with ETAS forecasts resulted in a decrease in crime as a function of patrol time of 7,4%. But in recent years, Palantir’s use in “predictive policing” has been attracting increasing attention. In sum, this study has provided an overview of what predictive policing is and what the claimed benefits and drawbacks are. The study by Saunders et al. There is general agreement that predictive policing is mainly occupied with descriptive analytics that have the aim to expose and understand crime trends by processing a wide variety of (un)unstructured data. After the identification of the articles and the removal of duplicates (n = 55), the records were screened and assessed on eligibility, but also whether they were freely accessible via our research institute. This, we hope, is how we achieve transparency and ensure fairness in the eyes of those directly affected by our actions. Of course I chose to use the same terminology in my own definition, but precisely because the words used to describe algorithms so accurately described my process of policing as a beat bobbie. However, it would generally involve a process or set of rules I felt were logical and helped me determine where I should go and when whilst on patrol, in order to solve the age old problem of reducing crime and disorder, protecting the vulnerable, and keeping our communities safe. Inayatullah (2013) describes that the police can prevent criminal behavior by engaging in “upstream prevention” (Inayatullah, 2013, p. 5, original emphasis). 08/31/2016 02:58 pm ET. Table 1. 3. Furthermore, leading data analytics in the nation, I hope I can encourage others to adopt these practices. In this report the Norwegian Board of Technology assesses data-driven analy-sis tools and predictive policing – and whether they should be adopted by the Is it therefore the algorithm or the decision making which is the problem? Hereinafter, Google Scholar was used to check whether important articles or papers were left out and to complement our corpus of literature, by searching for books and (edited) book chapters that also cover predictive policing. Predictive policing, with roots in business analytics, relies on using advanced technological tools and data analysis to take proactive measures to “pre-empt” crime. However, the same is true for its disadvantages or drawbacks. From 2006 to 2008 he was Professor at the Federal University of Applied Administrative Sciences in the Department Branch of Federal Criminal Police. patrol routes of officers) to reduce crime most efficiently and effectively. Law enforcement work is frequently reactive: Officers respond to calls for service, quell disturbances and make arrests. She regularly advises the European Parliament, the Commission, the Fundamental Rights Agency and NGOs on matters relating to EU immigration law, EU criminal law (particularly mechanisms for information exchange) and privacy and data protection law. The first book that discussed predictive policing was published in 2013. A first specific claim of the benefits of predictive policing is that resources can be deployed more accurately in place and time. Deputy chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group responsible for the areas of legal affairs and consumer protection, internal affairs, sport and voluntary work, expellees, repatriates, and German minorities since December 2018. Only publications written in English in ranked the journals (with an impact factor) or conference proceedings were selected. Overall, the overall crime index of New York decreased with 6% since the implementation of DAS. Santos (2014) argued with his assessment of different policing techniques that there is little evidence regarding the effectiveness of predictive policing. Police may also use data accumulated on shootings and the sounds of gunfire to identify locations of shootings. The analysis of time and space forms the basis for deployments of resources. In the conceptualization of predictive policing, general potential benefits are embedded: law enforcement agencies apply these methods to deploy their resources more efficiently and effectively. The first thing is to clarify that when we talk about data analytics, we are simply talking about analysis of information sped up by the use of tools. So this leads us to more concretely ask, what is an algorithm? Chris has served in law enforcement for 30 years; originally in the Royal Hong Kong Police; now with West Midlands Police; and with a number of national agencies in the UK focusing on serious organised crime, in between. Relation between claimed and proven drawbacks of predictive policing. ). With a lack of transparency and understanding of predictive models, accountability problems might occur. It quite succinctly highlights the risks of using the term without clear definition. Practised as a lawyer from 2001 to 2002; civil servant at the Baden-Württemberg State Ministry from 2002 to 2004, serving as personal assistant to the Minister for State and European Affairs; mayor of Donaueschingen from 2004 to 2013. Perry (2013) describe that predictive algorithms can be used to identify members of criminal groups that show an elevated risk of a violent outbreak between them (e.g. It was deemed a success: the random gunfire decreased on this night with 47%, 246% more weapons were seized, while the police force became more efficient as $15.000 was saved (Pearsall, 2010, p. 17). It is this illustration that is often missing, and was certainly missing from the reporting about Dallas Police’s intelligence-led approach to ‘predictive policing’. We know many victims will undergo multiple attacks before reporting to authorities and some may never report their abuse. People like beat bobbies (police officers who patrol the streets on foot); they trust them. Born on 8 August 1973 in Bad Säckingen; Roman Catholic; married, three children. Since 2016 he is Visiting Professor at the University of Vienna and at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies (ASE). One of the most current policing instruments is called PredPol. Predictive policing algorithms are becoming common practice in cities across the US. The search on the Web of Knowledge led to 22 results, Science Direct gave us eight documents and Scopus offered 45 results. by Thorsten FreiMember of the German Bundestag for CDU/CSUMember of the German Bundestag since October 2013. Predictive policing can and absolutely should be a force for public good, but we need to understand exactly what it entails. These models might result in possibly skewed depictions of society and criminal behavior as they tend to remove context (Innes, Fielding, & Cope, 2005). In view of this debate about the benefits and risks of predictive policing, there is a need for a state-of-the-art overview of existing literature on the benefits and drawbacks of predictive policing. In addition, the efficiency of the officers was also improved as they could better respond on criminal activity and find suspects through the full network of sensors by which it is easier to find suspects or stolen vehicles through license plate recognition. The risk of predictive policing lacking transparency, with affiliated problems such as accountability issues, is plausible. As expected, the attention to this topic is very recent: the oldest document that discussed predictive policing dates from 2010. The purpose of this study is threefold as it assessed (1) how predictive policing is conceptualized, (2) what the potential and proven benefits are, and (3) what evidence there is for these claimed and proven drawbacks. Second, in the settings of every search engine the keywords ‘predictive policing’ were always in this fixed order. This implies that not all predictive policing models effectively reduce each form of crime and that that geospatial predicting and profiling are both very different variations of predictive policing. The missing piece of this Predictive policing puzzle is the Facial Recognition Tech which can’t be deemed as inaccessible, as evident by Russian Apps like FindFace: A NtechLab App Launched in the mid-2010s, where the app allowed users to take a picture of someone and match their face to their social media profiles on Russian site Vkontakte (VK). Also, individuals can be identified that might become offenders in the future: inductive profiling (Van Brakel & De Hert, 2011). The answer is that I could always be held to account for my decisions. However, there is no empirical evidence to strengthen any of these assumptions. With confidence in the quality and accuracy of the data, we can eliminate more errors and use it in a more meaningful and fair way. Also, officers can respond faster on shootings through ShotSpotter (which registers the sounds of shootings). The second point however, is that we must also have confidence that the data we collect is the right data. (2015) provide a hypothetical example of how the resocialisation of ex-convicts might be affected by the actions of law enforcement agencies. artolympic via Getty Images. With their study, they tried to offer a solution of the Police Districting Problem (PDP), which is the challenge how police officers can optimally determine patrol sectors in which the chance of criminal behavior is the highest. Embedding an interpretation of my thought process into a coded algorithm though, risks creating a sense — amongst those experiencing the impact of the decisions being made — of being subject to power which is fixed and over which they have no control or means of redress. Particularly those tools that suggest or ‘predict’ what we should do in response to that analysis, and particularly where that recommendation is based upon the application of an algorithm? Almost invariably these reviews highlight areas where information or data was not adequately, if at all, shared between agencies. Following the PRISMA method, the exact settings for the information sources are described (Liberati et al., 2009, p. 8). The journals that incorporated articles about predictive policing are from a wide variety of journals: there is not a journal from which multiple articles originate. what citizens share on social media and the data that can be collected such as our movements with public transport) is private and whether it can be used unconditionally. Machine-learning algorithms could replicate or amplify bias on race, sexuality and age. The predictive policing challenges of near repeat armed street robberies, The futures of policing: Going beyond the thin blue line, ’The appliance of science?’: The theory and practice of crime intelligence analysis, Big data, new epistemologies and paradigm shifts, Measurement of repeat effects in Chicago’s criminal social network, The New York City police department’s domain awareness system, The PRISMA statement for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of studies that evaluate health care interventions: Explanation and elaboration, Randomized controlled field trials of predictive policing, Predictive policing: The future of law enforcement in the trinidad and tobago police service (TTPS), Predictive policing: The future of law enforcement, The hotspot matrix: A framework for the spatio‐temporal targeting of crime reduction. Hot spot policing also tends to focus on urban locations, or small areas in general, where crime is high. The use of statistical models can be of immense value for reducing crime and ensuring the safety in cities. To learn about our use of cookies and how you can manage your cookie settings, please see our Cookie Policy. In the current literature, a unanimous definition of predictive policing is absent. Take-up of predictive hot spot policing among the three experimental districts was high at first, but dropped off after 4 months as enthusiasm waned, likely skewing the results. The risk here is that predictive policing could result in less effective and maybe even discriminatory police interventions. This profiling transcends only demographical characteristics of individuals, but can also consist of (social) behavioral patterns (Brannon, 2017; Van Brakel & De Hert, 2011). In other words, it becomes unclear who is responsible for decision-making when there is full reliance on predictive algorithms. The effectiveness of crime analysis for crime reduction: Cure or diagnosis? Figure 1. Bennett Moses and Chan (2016) argue that predictive policing can be regarded as a form of pre-emptive policing that is mainly depended on statistical data. Indeed, it is argued that this type of policing strategy uses data mining methods to collect data that can help in the decision-making of law enforcement agencies (McCue, 2014; Tayebi & Glässer, 2016; Van Brakel & De Hert, 2011). In short, this paper gives police practitioners an overview of the claimed benefits and drawbacks of predictive policing and highlights that they need to realize that, for the moment, this innovative method lacks a clear evidence basis. 32–33). Obtained Abitur in 1993; completed compulsory basic military service in the German-French brigade from 1993 to 1994; studied law at the University of Freiburg from 1994 to 1999; passed second state examination in law in 2001. They did this by comparing traditional hot spot policing with this new predictive policing system in a 24-week cross-validation period and the results were striking: the accuracy of the predictions on the different types of criminal behavior have increased, especially for shootings. The vast majority of the public believe them to be fair in their approach to policing, but they don’t trust algorithms. These models help in to configure an optimal deployment of resources (e.g. The increased interest in this topic can also be deduced from several recent conference papers (2013 onward; n = 4). He reviewed the Kansas City No Violence Alliance (KCNOVA), which uses network-analysis software to identify individuals that are most likely to be involved in criminal activity and a living lab in the downtown of Kansas that is aimed to improve the quality of live and stimulate capital investment in this part of the city. 3099067 Since 2016 he is Visiting Professor at the University of Vienna and at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies (ASE). Privacy in public spaces: What expectations of privacy do we have in social media intelligence? And good luck!”[1] Can you imagine any other business treating its ‘product’ in such a careless way? Methods for predicting perpetrators' ident… Below, an overview is given to what extent the two different types of predictions are empirically proven (Figure 1). In their article, Schlehahn et al. The DSS-model proposed by the authors can help to better allocate police officers and determine the most optimal patrol routes. In this phase, the abstract and/or summary of the records were qualitatively analyzed to assess how they conceptualized predictive policing, what its benefits are and to identify the drawbacks. She is currently completing a PhD-preparatory master’s in research training at Humboldt University. He was Chairman of the European Law Committee from 2009 to 2017 and Chairman of the NSA Inquiry Committee from 2014 until 2017. It is more complex than dismissing the concept on the basis that we simply respond to public demand, and also more complex than suggesting areas of high demand correlate with areas of disproportionate populations and therefore all resultant data is skewed and should be disregarded. Whereas some empirical studies conclude that predictive policing strategies lead to a decrease in crime, others find no effect. Although many police departments and academics are convinced of a bright future for predictive policing, several academics also raise some concerns regarding the usage of data mining and algorithms to forecast criminal behavior. Predictive policing has been around for many decades and has proved as an effective tool for law enforcement officials who have seen crime reduction resulting from their efforts. He is one of the editors of the Journal for Intelligence, Propaganda and Security Studies (JIPSS). Conceptualizations of predictive policing by Uchida are also used in other bodies of literature (Bennett Moses and Chan, 2016; Tayebi & Glässer, 2016). It is a structured process. This process involves the use of Big Data which comprises the storing and analyzing of data. in Political Science, German, and International Relations from Ursinus College. I would suggest that just as a beat bobby’s professional judgement can be noble, well researched, and accurately and fairly applied, so too can an algorithmic process be a tool for public good. Edwards and Urquhart (2016) review whether the usage of open source and social media data by law enforcement agencies should be permitted and to what extent the digital identity of citizens is protected. The conference papers that are included in this review are mainly from computer and information science conferences. Since 2008 he is Professor for Public Law and European Law at the University of Applied Sciences for Police and Public Administration in North Rhine-Westphalia (HSPV NRW). The sentence referenced above is purposely flippant for effect and to demonstrate that organisation of data can nevertheless be improved upon. If law enforcers do not understand the factors that lead to an increased chance of crime, the effectiveness of their actions might be reduced (Perry, 2013). 5 Howick Place | London | SW1P 1WG. Today more than ever, law enforcement work is also proactive. This experiment uses program theory – i.e., the determination of indicators that increases the likelihood that property crime occurs- to construct prevention models on how to react to these indicators. Arguably, this doesn ’ t trust algorithms fact that the current literature, there is little empirical evidence all! Mainly from computer and information Science conferences, decisions, and informed community members,... The point it results in homicide a predictive policing, which is effective and even! A very relevant challenge but one that is Applied by police departments should be force! Easily achieved raised concerns over privacy rights all this is the highest in a tab! 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